TRADING-How to increase usability of trading style-Part 3 -"Pattern Confirmation"

So how do we confirm a pattern? There are several methods and it is down to personal preference as to how you decide to confirm your patterns. However please be warned that the word ‘confirmation’ can be a little misleading as just because we confirm a pattern it does not guarantee that the pattern will be fulfilled. Confirmation simply means ‘a point on the chart in which we assume, when crossed, the pattern may reach a target’.

 

A pattern can be confirmed, only to see price reverse and trade back into the suspected pattern to make it a ‘failed pattern’. Each pattern has a breakout line which is similar to drawing a trendline or S/R level.    

Breakout: We simply require price to cross the line. This is an ideal method if you want to set pending orders to catch the breakout. However price can (and does) return back over the breakout line to invalidate the pattern.

Close: We want to see price close a bar over the line to confirm the signal. This provides extra confidence and reduces the chances of it being a failed signal, however you also risk missing the move and for price to take off without you.

Multiple Closes: Some analysts use 2 or 3 closes to confirm the pattern. Whilst this provides even greater confidence you again risk the chance of missing the move for it to be profitable enough (for your reward/risk ratio)

Throwback: A throwback is my preferred style if trading the pattern. This is where price breakouts out or closes to confirm the pattern, but then returns to the breakout line. If this level then holds as either support or resistance it can provide an excellent entry with greater confidence and precision to achieve a much better reward/risk ratio. However the downside to this approach is you are much more likely to repeatedly miss moves if it doesn’t quite return to the breakout line.

I would not say that one method is not particularly better than the other, but it is important to use a method which suits your trading style and personality. For example an aggressive day-­‐trader who must be in the markets as much as possible may not have the patience to wait for a throwback (in fear of missing out) so a breakout approach may be better. Similarly and End of Day trader with more patience may be better suited to the throwback.